Property market's 'longest and deepest downturn' in 30-40 years
According to property data firm Cotality, New Zealand's housing market is experiencing its most prolonged and severe downturn in 30 to 40 years. The latest data indicates a 0.3% fall in the national median value in July, dropping to $804,303, following a similar decline in June. While some regions like Dunedin and Christchurch saw slight increases, major centers including Auckland, Wellington, and Tauranga experienced declines.
The data indicates that first-home buyers currently represent a record share of the market, taking advantage of lower prices and increased stock. However, investor activity remains subdued. Property economist Kelvin Davidson attributes this to concerns over flat rents, rising costs (rates and insurance), and uncertainty surrounding the upcoming election—specifically regarding potential changes to tax policies like a capital gains tax and interest deductibility. For developers, this extended downturn and cautious investor sentiment underscore the importance of robust project fundamentals and careful market positioning as buyers currently hold the balance of power.
https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/08/01/property-markets-longest-and-deepest-downturn-in-30-40-years/
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